Quite correct analysis. Another point which benefits Putin is when Israel strikes back on Hamas and the Palestinians with excessive force, which they most likely will do. Kremlin will try to make a similarity between Israel's war with Hamas/Palestinians and Russia’s war with Ukraine. When Israel is using excessive force in Gaza, Putin will point at Israel when he starts to use excessive force in Ukraine, which could be tactical nuclear weapons. At least it gives him a carte Blanche to escalate the force in Ukraine. He will make an analogy between Hamas terrorists and what he calls Ukrainian “terrorists” attacking the Kerch bridge, for instance.
Thank-you for this very rational article. I find it strange that Israel, with purportedly the best intelligence agency in the world did not know that this was coming from 1/2km beyond its borders...
Of course the question of who benefits is one that needs to be asked, but there are many more considerations than those you detail here. Here’s a few of them off the top of my head.
Yes Iran may benefit – they may have considered this to be an optimal time to put the boot into Israel and by extension the US & their interests. They may have considered that there would be no better time to act than when the West has emptied its military reserves, coffers and much political capital into the Ukraine debacle.
But then they would be running the risk of destroying the recent benefits of the BRICS supported rapprochement with the Saudis – and along with that the betterment of the Middle East and Syria in particular. The ‘Mullahs’ almost certainly understand that economic revitalisation, rather than oppression, is a rather more effective manner of maintaining control at home.
And then there’s the strong possibility that some or all of those issues could have been enough for just a faction or interest within Iran to act – some ‘hard-line’ element ‘Mullah’ or otherwise could be pulling the strings here.
Likewise for the US there are plenty who may benefit from new carnage in the Middle East – Biden & his set of neocons will be loving the fact no attention is currently being paid to the complete failure of the Ukraine’s massively expensive offensive this summer. They’re about to face another Afghanistan sized humiliation there and what better way to ‘move on’ from it than to rally around one of the two flags that the US electorate seems to care about (the one with only one star on it)? Having a crack at the Iranians would be just gravy for those who still think there’s unfinished business with ‘The Axis of Evil’. I certainly wouldn’t put any of this past the likes of Nuland-Kagan or the rest of the neocon parts of The Blob.
As for Putin’s atrocities – the rapidly escalating civilian casualties in Palestine will almost certainly give the lie to the claim that the RF have been actively targeting civilians in Ukraine – we’ll see how long it takes before the number of dead Palestinians outnumbers those of the Ukrainians. The Invasion in Ukraine was over 18 months ago now – I think we’ll see the death toll of Palestinian civilians outnumber that of the desperate Ukrainiains in a couple of weeks.
I'm saying that if his priority is as murderous as Russ seems to think then we'd all better hope he's not watching & learning from how the Israelis are going about their business right now.
Well said. With regard to diplomatic relations pending between Israel and Saudi Arabia, derailment may be unlikely -- especially if Iran involvement or instigation is proved. Saudies and Iranians are in two proxy wars now. A new card is also on the table -- word that may or not be true, that Egypt warned Bibi several weeks ago that something big was brewing in Gaza. Since Hamas took power in 2007 while losing on West Bank (only real election ever held in Gaza), Hamas has routinely targeted civilians. IDS has (barely) been more civilized.
But how this all affects West Bank Palestinians' interests may be more important, but less clear. And more sad.
The Palestinian pop is growing fast enough to make it the majority in a one state scenario. At that rate Israel is in the process of driving the Gaza pop into Egypt & other places as Israel also continues to actively pursue “settler colonialism” on the West Bank.
The settlers moving in with violence paved the way for this, and I figured it was coming. I don't pay close attention to Netanyahu, but he had been warned 10 days prior. He benefits the most because soldiers would not come to his aid as he was trying to dissolve democracy there, but they will jump into a war, any time: No questions asked. They should ALL be ashamed of themselves.
No one benefits, but benefit isn't the point. The point has been lost these many decades.
Sadly though they are benefiting even right here in our own country It's crazy how he just laid that out
No one should benefit ☮️
Quite correct analysis. Another point which benefits Putin is when Israel strikes back on Hamas and the Palestinians with excessive force, which they most likely will do. Kremlin will try to make a similarity between Israel's war with Hamas/Palestinians and Russia’s war with Ukraine. When Israel is using excessive force in Gaza, Putin will point at Israel when he starts to use excessive force in Ukraine, which could be tactical nuclear weapons. At least it gives him a carte Blanche to escalate the force in Ukraine. He will make an analogy between Hamas terrorists and what he calls Ukrainian “terrorists” attacking the Kerch bridge, for instance.
Thank-you for this very rational article. I find it strange that Israel, with purportedly the best intelligence agency in the world did not know that this was coming from 1/2km beyond its borders...
One of your best columns Russ. Very sad in how true it is. The Bad Guys are winning.
Cui bono? A very handy phrase that I will now put on my belt and wield like a six gun.
Great column about a sensitive subject.
Of course the question of who benefits is one that needs to be asked, but there are many more considerations than those you detail here. Here’s a few of them off the top of my head.
Yes Iran may benefit – they may have considered this to be an optimal time to put the boot into Israel and by extension the US & their interests. They may have considered that there would be no better time to act than when the West has emptied its military reserves, coffers and much political capital into the Ukraine debacle.
But then they would be running the risk of destroying the recent benefits of the BRICS supported rapprochement with the Saudis – and along with that the betterment of the Middle East and Syria in particular. The ‘Mullahs’ almost certainly understand that economic revitalisation, rather than oppression, is a rather more effective manner of maintaining control at home.
And then there’s the strong possibility that some or all of those issues could have been enough for just a faction or interest within Iran to act – some ‘hard-line’ element ‘Mullah’ or otherwise could be pulling the strings here.
Likewise for the US there are plenty who may benefit from new carnage in the Middle East – Biden & his set of neocons will be loving the fact no attention is currently being paid to the complete failure of the Ukraine’s massively expensive offensive this summer. They’re about to face another Afghanistan sized humiliation there and what better way to ‘move on’ from it than to rally around one of the two flags that the US electorate seems to care about (the one with only one star on it)? Having a crack at the Iranians would be just gravy for those who still think there’s unfinished business with ‘The Axis of Evil’. I certainly wouldn’t put any of this past the likes of Nuland-Kagan or the rest of the neocon parts of The Blob.
As for Putin’s atrocities – the rapidly escalating civilian casualties in Palestine will almost certainly give the lie to the claim that the RF have been actively targeting civilians in Ukraine – we’ll see how long it takes before the number of dead Palestinians outnumbers those of the Ukrainians. The Invasion in Ukraine was over 18 months ago now – I think we’ll see the death toll of Palestinian civilians outnumber that of the desperate Ukrainiains in a couple of weeks.
I completely disagree with everything you say here.. If Putin's atrocities are not evident to you, then you are blind.
I'm saying that if his priority is as murderous as Russ seems to think then we'd all better hope he's not watching & learning from how the Israelis are going about their business right now.
I'd add to the list of beneficiaries anyone who would like to see a nice hefty spike in oil prices.
Well said. With regard to diplomatic relations pending between Israel and Saudi Arabia, derailment may be unlikely -- especially if Iran involvement or instigation is proved. Saudies and Iranians are in two proxy wars now. A new card is also on the table -- word that may or not be true, that Egypt warned Bibi several weeks ago that something big was brewing in Gaza. Since Hamas took power in 2007 while losing on West Bank (only real election ever held in Gaza), Hamas has routinely targeted civilians. IDS has (barely) been more civilized.
But how this all affects West Bank Palestinians' interests may be more important, but less clear. And more sad.
The Palestinian pop is growing fast enough to make it the majority in a one state scenario. At that rate Israel is in the process of driving the Gaza pop into Egypt & other places as Israel also continues to actively pursue “settler colonialism” on the West Bank.
The settlers moving in with violence paved the way for this, and I figured it was coming. I don't pay close attention to Netanyahu, but he had been warned 10 days prior. He benefits the most because soldiers would not come to his aid as he was trying to dissolve democracy there, but they will jump into a war, any time: No questions asked. They should ALL be ashamed of themselves.
Thank you so much for laying this out and for putting it in like chest game style I actually could understand it and I really appreciate it